Melbourne's Labor heartland faces potential shift to One Nation in 2026 Victorian election

Shifting allegiances in Melbourne's north-west

In the working-class suburbs of Melbourne’s north-west, long considered a bastion of support for the Australian Labor Party, a significant political shift is emerging ahead of the 2026 Victorian state election. Enthusiastic Labor voters in areas such as Taylors Lakes, located 20 kilometres north-west of the city centre, are increasingly expressing dissatisfaction with the party. This discontent is driven primarily by high living costs and a perception that political promises have not been fulfilled. As a result, some residents are now considering voting for One Nation, a party that has historically struggled to gain traction in these specific demographics.

The seat of Sydenham, where many of these voters are enrolled, serves as a key indicator of this changing landscape. In the 2022 state election, Labor’s primary vote in the seat dropped by 17.8 per cent. Furthermore, the party’s two-party-preferred vote fell below the 60 per cent mark for the first time in three decades. The sitting member for the seat, Natalie Hutchins, is retiring, adding to the uncertainty surrounding the future of the electorate. Local observers note that while many residents identify as working-class and have traditionally aligned with Labor, a sense of abandonment is growing among the community.

Background

Labor has historically dominated the western suburbs of Melbourne, relying on the consistent support of working-class voters. For years, the party assumed that these voters would never cross the line to support the Liberal Party, providing a degree of political security. However, the political landscape has evolved, introducing One Nation as a viable alternative for disaffected Labor voters. The 2022 election results marked a turning point, with significant declines in both primary and two-party-preferred votes in key northern seats. This erosion of support suggests that the previous assumption of unwavering loyalty is no longer valid. The retirement of long-serving members like Natalie Hutchins in Sydenham further complicates the electoral picture, as new candidates will need to rebuild trust in communities that feel overlooked by the state government.

Why it matters

The potential flip of Melbourne’s north-western seats to One Nation would represent a major realignment in Victorian politics. For Labor, losing these traditional strongholds could significantly impact its ability to form or maintain government, given the party’s reliance on urban and working-class support. For One Nation, gaining seats in these areas would mark a substantial breakthrough, expanding its influence beyond its traditional rural and outer-suburban base. The affected communities are primarily working-class residents who cite economic pressures as their primary concern. The shift indicates that voters are no longer bound by historical party loyalty but are instead making decisions based on immediate economic realities and perceived responsiveness from political leaders. This development could force all major parties to rethink their strategies for engaging with working-class voters in metropolitan areas.

What happens next

The 2026 Victorian state election will determine whether this trend of voter defection solidifies into actual seat changes. With the election scheduled for next month, political parties are likely to intensify their campaigning efforts in the north-western suburbs. Candidates will need to address the specific concerns of cost of living and service delivery to retain or win back support. The retirement of sitting members in key seats will lead to new candidate contests, where local credibility and policy focus will be critical factors in determining the outcome. The final results will reveal whether One Nation can successfully convert its growing appeal into parliamentary representation in Melbourne’s inner and middle-ring suburbs.