EU monitor: 2026 likely second-hottest year as El Nino intensifies

The European Union’s climate monitoring agency has confirmed that 2026 is most likely to become the second-hottest year on record. The Copernicus Climate Change Service issued this assessment in a monthly bulletin released on 6 November, noting that while the year is tracking for the second-highest temperatures, there remains a 20 percent probability that it could tie or exceed 2024 as the warmest year ever observed. This projection comes as global surface air temperatures continue to climb, driven by a combination of long-term human-driven warming and short-term natural climate variations.

The organization states that it is nearly inevitable for worldwide heat levels to surpass 1.5 degrees Celsius over pre-industrial benchmarks during 2026. Furthermore, the four-year average temperature from 2023 to 2026 is expected to surpass this 1.5-degree threshold, which is the preferred limit established by the Paris Agreement to prevent the most severe impacts of climate change. Records show that October 2026 marked the hottest month of that kind ever documented, as mean global surface air temperatures hit 1.75 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline, a period defined as 1850 to 1900.

Background

The primary driver behind the current spike in temperatures is identified as an exceptionally strong El Nino weather pattern. Samantha Burgess, who serves as the strategic lead for climate at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), the body managing Copernicus, noted that this natural event is injecting considerable warmth into an atmosphere already heated by human actions. El Nino is the warming phase of a natural climate cycle that temporarily raises sea temperatures in the tropical Pacific, triggering global weather changes that can increase the risk of drought and flooding while exacerbating man-made global warming.

Global forecasters have warned for months that the current El Nino event, which is expected to peak later in the year, would likely become the strongest ever observed. This occurrence recently established a new historical temperature high in a critical area of the Pacific. This bulletin arrives on the eve of international diplomatic efforts, as nations prepare to convene on 9 November for the two-week COP31 United Nations climate summit in Turkey. This gathering follows a year marked by extreme weather events, including deadly floods in Nepal, severe heatwaves across Europe, and major wildfires in Indonesia.

Why it matters

The findings highlight the urgency of the current climate crisis, as the long-term 1.5-degree Celsius target is being approached rapidly. The United Nations declared in September that this target would be missed within a matter of years. Researchers stress that cutting greenhouse gas output from fossil fuels is essential to shorten the period of any "overshoot" beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius and to bring temperatures back down as quickly as possible. The convergence of record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather events underscores the tangible risks facing communities worldwide, from agricultural disruptions due to drought to increased mortality risks from heatwaves and flooding.

What happens next

The immediate next step is the COP31 climate summit in Turkey, where world leaders will meet to discuss climate action. Following the peak of the current El Nino event, forecasters suggest that the warming trends may continue, with some predicting that 2027 could become the hottest year on record. The outcomes of the summit and subsequent policy decisions will be critical in determining the pace of emission reductions needed to mitigate further temperature increases.