New Zealand election results leave parliament split, coalition talks likely

Tight results leave New Zealand parliament split

On Saturday, preliminary counts from New Zealand’s 2026 general election showed no clear winner. The centre‑right National Party, led by Prime Minister Christopher Luxon, secured 42 seats but fell 19 short of the 71 needed for a simple majority. Labour, headed by opposition leader Chris Hipkins, won 36 seats. The remaining seats were divided among the Greens (16), ACT (13), New Zealand First (12), the Opportunity Party (7) and Te Pāti Māori (5).

With National’s seat total, the party would still need to partner with ACT and New Zealand First to form a slim majority. Hipkins, however, said the shape of the next government would remain uncertain for a while, indicating that negotiations would be required.

The electoral commission will not announce the official results until 27 November. In the meantime, Luxon will run a caretaker government until the final count is confirmed.

Background

The 2026 election was shaped by concerns over the cost of living and unemployment. Historically, the two major parties have dominated New Zealand politics, but this election saw their combined vote share drop to around 60 %, a historically low figure. The Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, the centrist Opportunity Party and Te Pāti Māori collectively captured the remaining 40 % of the vote.

The Opportunity Party, which crossed the 5 % threshold for the first time, has positioned itself as a potential kingmaker. Its leader, Qiulae Wong, stated that the party would negotiate first with the party that secures the most seats, but remains open to working with either major bloc.

Why it matters

A hung parliament means that no single party can govern alone. The outcome will depend on coalition agreements, which will determine policy priorities and the composition of the cabinet. The National Party, if it partners with ACT and New Zealand First, would hold a narrow majority, potentially influencing decisions on economic policy and social welfare. Labour’s 36 seats give it significant influence, but it will need support from other parties to pass legislation.

The result also reflects a shift in voter sentiment, with the two major parties receiving a lower combined share of the vote than in previous elections. This could signal changing public attitudes towards the cost of living and unemployment, issues that dominated the campaign.

What happens next

The electoral commission will release the official results on 27 November. Following confirmation, coalition negotiations are expected to commence. The National Party will likely seek agreements with ACT and New Zealand First, while Labour will explore options with the Greens, the Opportunity Party and Te Pāti Māori. The final composition of the government will depend on the outcomes of these talks.