Lula wins historic fourth term after stunning comeback against Flávio Bolsonaro

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has secured a historic fourth term as Brazilian president, defeating his far-right rival Flávio Bolsonaro in the second round of the election. With nearly 99 per cent of votes counted, the 80-year-old incumbent received 51.75 per cent of the vote, while his 45-year-old opponent garnered 48.25 per cent. This victory represents a dramatic reversal, as Lula had narrowly lost the first round held in early October, a result that had cast significant doubt over his political future and caused deep concern among progressive voters across the country.

The election result was confirmed on Sunday, triggering celebrations in major cities such as São Paulo, where supporters gathered to watch the count. The turnaround was particularly notable because, since the return of democracy to Brazil in 1985, no candidate who finished second in the first round had ever managed to win the subsequent runoff. Lula’s campaign successfully mobilised its base, contributing to a reduction in abstention rates that helped close the gap from a deficit of 2.2 million votes in the first round to a lead of 4.3 million votes in the final count.

Background

Lula’s political career spans several decades, beginning in the late 1970s as a union leader in the industrial suburbs of São Paulo. Rising from a background of rural destitution, he entered the political arena and secured the presidency in 2002, becoming Brazil's inaugural working-class leader, after suffering defeats in the 1989, 1994, and 1998 elections. He served two consecutive terms from 2003 to 2010, the maximum allowed by the constitution, before stepping down. He returned to power in 2023 after defeating Jair Bolsonaro, the father of his current rival, in the 2022 election. Jair Bolsonaro is presently incarcerated for 27 years due to his role in orchestrating an unsuccessful coup d'etat after his defeat in the 2022 vote.

Flávio Bolsonaro, a lawyer and former senator from Rio de Janeiro, is the son of the incarcerated former president. In the first round of the 2026 election, Flávio Bolsonaro led in key regions, including the state of Minas Gerais, where he polled 48.43 per cent compared to Lula’s 43.33 per cent. The 2026 electoral contest recorded a historic non-voting figure of 21.08 percent during the initial stage, a trend that particularly impacted Lula's supporters, many of whom reside at greater distances from voting locations. However, this rate fell to 19.21 per cent in the second round, aiding Lula’s recovery.

Why it matters

The outcome has significant implications for both domestic politics and international relations. For the Bolsonaro family, the defeat is a major setback; Jair Bolsonaro had hoped that his son’s victory would lead to his release from prison and a role in the new government. The result is also a blow to US President Donald Trump, who had supported the Bolsonaro clan and sought to expand the influence of pro-Trump leaders in Latin America, a trend seen in countries such as Colombia, Ecuador, Chile, and Argentina. In Brasília, where Jair Bolsonaro is under house arrest, the confirmation of Lula’s victory was met with anger and bewilderment. Conversely, Lula’s allies expressed joy, with one key supporter stating that the result demonstrated Brazil’s rejection of the extreme right and its commitment to reorganising democratic forces.

What happens next

Lula will begin his new term as the longest-serving president in Brazil’s modern history. He is set to turn 81 on Tuesday, marking a significant milestone in his storied career. The victory allows him to continue his presidency without the immediate threat of a change in government, while the Bolsonaro faction faces a period of political uncertainty following their defeat in the runoff.