ANC leads South Africa municipal polls with sharply reduced vote share

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) held a narrow lead in the preliminary results of the municipal elections held on Thursday, 4 November. However, the ruling party’s share of the vote has fallen sharply compared to previous cycles. As of 0424 GMT, with approximately 12% of the total votes counted, the ANC secured around 32% of the vote. The Democratic Alliance (DA) trailed closely behind with 31%, according to data from the election commission. Officials noted that the counting process was still in its preliminary stages, meaning the final outcome could change significantly as more districts report their figures.

The early tallies indicate a substantial shift in voter sentiment, particularly in populous provinces such as Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, where only a small proportion of districts had reported results at the time of the initial update. Despite the incomplete data, the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), a leading local research organisation, provided a projection suggesting the ANC’s current percentage might hold steady in the final count. Based on results from 11.5% of voting districts, the CSIR estimated the ANC would finish with approximately 32% of the vote, while the DA would secure around 26%. This projection was shared with the public broadcaster, offering a potential glimpse into the final distribution of power in local government.

Background

The 4 November vote was widely anticipated to result in a loss of ground for the ANC at the national level. Voters were expected to penalise the party for high crime rates, ongoing corruption scandals, and the failure to provide basic services such as water and electricity. This trend continues a long-term decline in the ANC’s electoral support. In the previous municipal elections in 2021, the party won 46% of the vote, a significant drop from the 62% it secured in 2011. During this same period, its main competitor, the Democratic Alliance, has generally hovered around 22% of the vote, while various smaller parties have competed for the remaining share. The current election results will play a crucial role in shaping the political landscape ahead of the 2029 national election. Additionally, the outcome may influence the internal succession battle within the ANC, as President Cyril Ramaphosa approaches the end of his term as party leader in 2027.

Why it matters

The results have significant implications for governance in major municipalities, including Johannesburg, where no clear winner is expected. Consequently, political parties will be required to negotiate to form coalition governments. Analysts have suggested that the most stable option for cities like Johannesburg would be for the ANC to partner with the DA, mirroring the arrangement currently in place at the national government level. However, the two parties are ideologically opposed on key issues, particularly regarding racial redress. As an alternative, the ANC could choose to form a coalition with the leftist Economic Freedom Fighters and uMkhonto weSizwe, the party led by former president Jacob Zuma. Such an alliance would effectively exclude the pro-business Democratic Alliance from the governing structure. The ability to form these coalitions will determine the stability and policy direction of local administrations in the coming years.

What happens next

Parties will have two weeks from the official declaration of results to form coalitions. The declaration of results is expected to take place on Sunday. During this period, negotiations will be critical in determining which parties will govern major cities. The final outcome of these negotiations will set the stage for local governance and provide further insight into the broader political dynamics leading up to the 2029 national elections.