ANC faces historic low of 32% in South Africa municipal elections

South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) is on track to record its lowest-ever share of the vote in municipal elections, with early counts indicating the party has secured approximately 32 percent of the total. As of Friday, more than two-thirds of all ballots had been processed, with 71 percent of the vote counted at the time of reporting. The final results were expected to be declared later in the day. The ANC’s nearest rival, the Democratic Alliance (DA), was polling at 25 percent of the vote according to the same early data.

If these preliminary figures are confirmed, the ANC would experience a decline of roughly 14 percentage points compared to its performance in the 2021 municipal elections. The 2021 result was already the party's worst in its history. This outcome signals a continued erosion of support for the party that has led South Africa since the end of apartheid in 1994. The results suggest that voter turnout was sufficient to indicate that ANC supporters did not simply abstain, but rather shifted their votes to alternative political parties.

Background

The ANC has maintained its position as South Africa's largest political party since leading the country out of apartheid in 1994. However, its electoral dominance has weakened significantly in recent years. Following the 2024 national election, the ANC was forced to form a coalition government, acknowledging its loss of an outright majority at the national level. The current municipal election results extend this trend of declining support.

Political analysts attribute the sharp drop in the ANC's vote share to widespread voter dissatisfaction with the party's management of key national issues. These include high levels of crime and unemployment, persistent corruption scandals, and the failure to provide basic services such as reliable water and electricity. Oxford Economics Africa's senior political analyst, Louw Nel, characterized the anticipated 32 percent outcome as the realization of the party's deepest fears. He noted that the turnout patterns suggested voters were actively choosing other parties rather than staying home.

Why it matters

The outcome of these elections has significant implications for the governance of South Africa's major metropolitan areas. The Democratic Alliance is positioned to secure a clear majority in Cape Town. However, projections indicate that councils in other large cities, including Johannesburg and Tshwane, will likely be hung, meaning no single party will hold a majority. Johannesburg, South Africa's largest city, and Tshwane, which houses the administrative capital Pretoria, will therefore require coalition arrangements to form functioning local governments.

In eThekwini, the municipality centered on Durban, the outcome remained unclear in the early stages of the count. Former President Jacob Zuma, whose political party is a splinter group from the ANC, was hoping his faction could seize a majority in this region. The need for coalition talks in major cities presents a complex political landscape. Experts have proposed that the most stable path for municipalities such as Johannesburg involves an alliance between the ANC and the DA, replicating the structure of the current national administration. However, this potential alliance is complicated by deep ideological differences between the two parties, particularly regarding issues of racial redress.

What happens next

With the final results expected later in the day, the immediate next step will be the formal declaration of the election outcomes. Following this, coalition negotiations will likely begin in cities where no party has secured a majority, such as Johannesburg and Tshwane. These talks will determine which parties can form governing alliances to manage local services and infrastructure in South Africa's most populous urban centers.