Nigerian Bonny Light rises to $115 a barrel amid heightened Strait of Hormuz attacks

Nigerian Bonny Light climbs to $115 a barrel

As of 24 October 2026, Nigerian Bonny Light crude closed its final trade at $115 per barrel, whereas West Texas Intermediate ended the session at $103 per barrel. The rise was attributed to supply‑side concerns and a surge in attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The price increase coincided with a record number of strikes against vessels in the Persian Gulf. According to the Washington Institute, at least 28 vessels were struck this month, and the International Maritime Organization logged 120 incidents since February. The attacks have added a high geopolitical risk premium to the market.

Background

Bonny Light is a light, sweet crude that typically trades at a premium to Brent when Middle Eastern supplies are constrained. Nigeria’s fiscal receipts and foreign‑exchange earnings are heavily influenced by higher world Brent prices and increased domestic production.

The recent attacks are part of a broader pattern of security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit choke point for crude exports from the Persian Gulf. The region has seen heightened tensions, with U.S. President Donald Trump warning that Washington could strike Iran again, citing Operation Epic Fury launched in February. U.S. Ambassador to Turkey Tom Barrack also suggested a strike could occur that weekend, although Trump denied knowledge of any imminent strikes.

In addition to the shipping attacks, the International Atomic Energy Agency has indicated that it is technically ready to restart nuclear verification in Iran, pending a negotiated deal. Iran’s top UN envoy has stated that the Islamic Republic has not abandoned its nuclear safeguard commitments due to security fears.

Why it matters

The price rise of Bonny Light affects Nigeria’s economy directly. Nigerian crude oil and condensate output averaged 1.7 million barrels per day in August 2026, up from about 1.53 million barrels per day earlier in the year. Enhanced protection measures along the Nembe Creek and Trans‑Niger Pipeline routes have curtailed illicit extraction and pipeline tapping, thereby boosting overall production levels.

The Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission reports that the nation holds 37 billion barrels of crude oil and condensate reserves. Nevertheless, exportable quantities are projected to become constrained until daily output nears 2 million barrels, a period during which an increasing share of domestic crude is being allocated to local refineries.

The tightening of export volumes, combined with the geopolitical risk premium from the Strait of Hormuz attacks, has pushed Bonny Light to a new high, impacting both Nigerian revenue streams and global oil market dynamics.

What happens next

The sources do not specify any immediate policy changes or regulatory actions in response to the price movement. The situation remains fluid, with ongoing attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and potential diplomatic developments concerning Iran’s nuclear programme. Nigeria’s refining capacity has increased, but the country will continue to monitor export volumes and security conditions to manage its fiscal outlook.