Nigeria’s Tinubu Administration Scores 28.5% in CGR Governance Index

Tinubu Administration Receives Low Governance Score

On 24 October 2026, the New York-based think-tank known as the Centre for Governance Research (CGR) published its Governance Report for September 2026. The report gave President Bola Tinubu’s administration a 28.5 % score, a rating that the organisation described as “failing”. The assessment covers governance at both federal and state levels in Nigeria.

The low score was attributed to several concerns. CGR highlighted rising public debt, weak budget implementation, security incidents, questions over cash‑transfer programmes and the president’s prolonged absence from the country. Not a single one of the nine metrics employed to evaluate the federal administration attained a rating higher than three.The overall score stood at five out of ten. Each of the categories covering security, fundamental necessities, governance, and public opinion was assigned a score of two.5 score, while infrastructure achieved the highest score of 3.5.

The report also evaluated state governments, naming Imo, Ondo, Benue, Rivers, Taraba and Sokoto as states that did not perform well.

Background

CGR’s Governance Index is an evidence‑based tool that evaluates a range of governance indicators. The September 2026 report followed earlier editions that had tracked changes in Nigeria’s public debt, budget execution and security environment.

Public debt figures were a key factor in the low rating. According to CGR, the aggregate public debt of Nigeria hit N166.79 trillion by the end of June 2026, representing a rise of N7.44 trillion in just three months. Challenges with budget execution were also evident, as Tinubu approved a fourth postponement of the 2025 capital expenditure plan on 30 September, thereby extending the completion target to 31 December 2026. Only N9.13 billion had been released against the N1.218 trillion appropriated across eight ministries, a mere 1.3 % of the total.

Security concerns were highlighted through several incidents. The report recorded 37 deaths in custody at a detention centre in Minna, and a news agency filmed 33 bodies at a hospital. At least 87 people, mostly women, were reported missing after weekend attacks in Niger and Zamfara states.

Cash‑transfer programmes were also scrutinised. An Auditor‑General query raised doubts about N33.75 billion in cash transfers made in 2023, questioning whether the money reached genuine beneficiaries. The agency disputed the query.

The president’s absence was another point of criticism. CGR reported that Tinubu left Nigeria on 30 August and returned to Lagos on 29 September, with the return date shifted twice and no health records published.

Why It Matters

The CGR rating reflects a comprehensive assessment of governance that can influence investor confidence, donor engagement and public trust. A 28.5 % score signals significant weaknesses in fiscal management, security provision and transparency, all of which are critical for economic stability and social cohesion.

The debt rise of N7.44 trillion in three months suggests a tightening fiscal position that could affect future borrowing costs and public service delivery. The low budget implementation rate indicates that allocated funds are not being effectively disbursed, potentially delaying infrastructure projects and social programmes.

Security incidents, including deaths in custody and missing persons after attacks, point to challenges in maintaining public safety and protecting citizens, especially women who were disproportionately affected. These issues can erode confidence in law enforcement and the justice system.

The scrutiny of cash‑transfer programmes raises concerns about the effectiveness of social safety nets. If funds are not reaching intended beneficiaries, vulnerable populations may remain without essential support.

The president’s extended overseas stay, without published health records, has drawn criticism for lack of transparency and may affect perceptions of leadership accountability.

What Happens Next

While the document fails to specify corrective measures, it frames the results as a crucial step toward exploring the roots and consequences of ineffective governance in the most densely populated nation in Africa. Dr Catherine Whitmore, who serves as CGR’s Head of Communication and Press Coordinator, characterized the evaluation as a rigorous and professional endeavor to study governance using data-driven research.

The publication recognizes certain favorable economic trends that occurred during the timeframe, even though it provides no specific details regarding them. No further steps or policy responses are mentioned in the available source material.