Nigeria reports loss of 3.33 million barrels of crude to theft in 2025, with most losses in fourth quarter

Nigeria’s upstream regulator has disclosed that 3.33 million barrels of crude oil were lost to theft in 2025, according to its annual report released in early November. The report, issued by the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC), indicates that nearly two‑thirds of the thefts occurred in the fourth quarter of the year, a sharp rise from earlier periods.

The commission recorded 896,471 barrels stolen in the first quarter, a negative adjustment of 200,400 barrels in the second quarter – attributed to excess volumes identified during reconciliation – 440,434 barrels in the third quarter and a dramatic 2.19 million barrels in the fourth quarter. The fourth‑quarter figure alone represented 65.8 % of the total reported loss for the year.

Despite the theft, Nigeria’s crude output remained relatively stable, with a total of 541.08 million barrels of crude oil and blended condensate produced in 2025. Quarterly production figures were 132.70 million barrels in Q1, 137.69 million in Q2, 137.45 million in Q3 and 133.23 million in Q4, complemented by 48.52 million barrels of unblended condensate.

Background

The NUPRC’s 2025 report also highlighted a decline in revenue collection from crude oil and gas, falling from N12.56 trillion in 2024 to N10.42 trillion in 2025 – a 17.03 % drop. This reduction occurred even as the commission recorded higher receipts from gas‑flare penalties, signature bonuses and concession rentals. The report noted that the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPC) incurred energy‑security costs of N8.67 trillion in 2025, up from roughly N3.1 trillion in 2024, reflecting expanded spending on protecting oil infrastructure.

In addition to theft figures, the NUPRC outlined progress on field development plans aimed at expanding upstream capacity. Of the 48 approved projects, seven focus exclusively on non‑associated gas, with first‑oil expected between 2026 and 2030.

Why it matters

The loss of 3.33 million barrels represents crude that could have contributed to government revenue, export earnings and domestic refinery feedstock. The concentration of theft in the final quarter raises concerns about the effectiveness of security measures, especially given the steep rise in energy‑security spending.

Stakeholders, including industry analysts and government officials, have pointed to the disparity between rising protection costs and persistent theft as an indicator of systemic challenges in safeguarding Nigeria’s oil infrastructure. The reported theft also occurs against a backdrop of ongoing worries about meeting production targets; the 2026 federal budget assumes a daily output of 1.84 million barrels, yet OPEC data shows an average of 1.505 million barrels per day since July 2026.

What happens next

The NUPRC’s report signals that the commission intends to continue expanding field development projects to boost upstream capacity, with several new fields slated to reach first oil between 2026 and 2030. However, the document does not specify additional anti‑theft measures or timelines for addressing the security shortfall.

The next annual report, due in late 2027, will likely provide updated figures on theft, production and revenue, offering a benchmark for assessing whether the heightened security spending and development plans translate into reduced losses and improved fiscal outcomes.