Goldman Sachs lifts 2026 Brent outlook as Middle East supply rebounds, projects $80 average for 2027

Goldman Sachs has adjusted its short‑term outlook for Brent crude, increasing the forecast for December 2026 to $90 per barrel, up from a previous estimate of $85. The revision reflects the bank’s view that oil supplies from the Middle East are beginning to normalise after earlier disruptions linked to a conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran.

The investment bank’s commodities research team, which released the analysis over the weekend, also projected that Brent prices will settle around $80 a barrel on average in 2027. This longer‑term estimate assumes that the recovery in Middle Eastern production will continue, reducing the upward pressure on global oil markets.

Nevertheless, Goldman Sachs warned that the possibility of renewed hostilities in the region could keep prices higher than the projected average. The bank highlighted that any escalation of the existing geopolitical tensions would likely sustain elevated price levels, even as supply fundamentals improve.

The revised forecasts come as market participants monitor both the pace of supply restoration and the broader risk environment. While the anticipated rebound in Middle Eastern output is expected to moderate price volatility, the lingering uncertainty surrounding the conflict means that the oil market could still experience periods of heightened price activity.

Goldman Sachs’ outlook underscores the dual influence of physical supply dynamics and geopolitical risk on crude pricing. By raising its near‑term forecast and setting a modest 2027 average, the bank signals confidence in a gradual easing of supply constraints, while remaining cautious about potential disruptions that could alter the trajectory.

Analysts and investors will likely weigh these projections against other market indicators as they assess the outlook for energy commodities throughout the remainder of the year and into the next.