Nigeria's September inflation eases to about 14.6% as food prices soften and energy costs jump

Overall inflation trend The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report on 15 October 2026, showing that Nigeria’s headline inflation rate declined to 14.63 percent in September, down from 15.39 percent in August. This represents a reduction of about 0.76 percentage points month‑on‑month and a larger fall compared with the 20.98 percent recorded in September 2025. The figure aligns with reports from Premium Times, Punch and Leadership, which all cite the same NBS data.

Food price dynamics Food inflation remained elevated but showed a modest easing, standing at 19.59 percent year‑on‑year in September, slightly above the 19.57 percent recorded in August. The NBS attributed the slowdown to lower average prices for items such as short‑grain rice, maize flour, onions, palm oil, tomatoes, okra, potatoes, plantain and eggs. On a month‑on‑month basis, food prices actually fell, with a decline of 1.55 percentage points, indicating a brief reprieve for households facing high living costs.

Energy price pressure In contrast to the overall moderation, energy inflation surged dramatically. Nairametrics reported that the annual rate for energy rose to 10.85 percent in September, more than double the 4.69 percent recorded in August. The NBS data showed a 6.16‑point jump within a single month, marking the third‑highest energy inflation reading for the first nine months of 2026. The spike is linked to heightened global oil market volatility following the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States, which pushed domestic fuel prices higher.

Monetary policy response The Daily Post noted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) responded to the easing headline inflation by reducing its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) benchmark interest rate to 23 percent, down from 26.5 percent. The rate cut was presented as a measure to support economic activity while acknowledging the lower inflation trajectory.

Divergence in reported figures While most outlets quoted the NBS headline rate as 14.63 percent, Daily Post reported a slightly higher figure of 14.64 percent for September. The difference is marginal and reflects rounding variations across publications.

Outlook The simultaneous decline in headline and food inflation, alongside a sharp rise in energy costs, underscores a mixed inflationary environment. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy items, remained high at 12.95 percent year‑on‑year, suggesting that underlying price pressures persist. Analysts will likely monitor whether the recent monetary easing translates into sustained price stability, especially as global energy markets remain unsettled.